How Can You Tell When a Prediction Is Being Treated as a Fact?
How Can You Tell When a Prediction Is Being Treated as a Fact? You can tell when people stop making room for the prediction to be wrong. Predictions are necessary. Businesses forecast revenue, teams estimate completion dates, households anticipate expenses, and people make decisions about futures they cannot know with certainty. The problem is not prediction. The problem begins when an uncertain forecast gradually acquires the status of an observed fact. Listen to the Language Change Imagine a company forecasting $12 million in revenue next year. At first, the language is precise: “The forecast is $12 million.” A few meetings later, people begin saying: “We expect $12 million.” Eventually: “We'll have $12 million.” The underlying analysis may be exactly the same. What changed was the amount of uncertainty carried forward with the number. This is how predictions often become embedded as facts. Nobody formally declares the future certain. The language simply becomes mor...
