When Should a Streak Change What You Expect Next?
When Should a Streak Change What You Expect Next? A streak is a clue, not a forecast. A few wins in a row can feel meaningful. So can a few losses. We quickly start telling ourselves a story: They’re hot. They’re collapsing. This strategy is finally working. We’re due for a turnaround. But a streak should not automatically change what you expect next. The better question is: What changed underneath the streak? Some Systems Don’t Remember Imagine a fair coin lands heads five times in a row. What should you expect on the next flip? Still roughly fifty-fifty. The coin does not remember what happened before. Thinking tails is now “due” is the gambler’s fallacy. The same mistake can happen in reverse. Five wins do not automatically make a sixth more likely. Continuation also needs a reason. The streak itself is only a pattern. What matters is whether the process producing the outcomes has changed. People and Organizations Are Different From Coins Many systems do have ...