When Several Explanations Seem to Fit, How Do You Decide Which One to Act On?
When Several Explanations Seem to Fit, How Do You Decide Which One to Act On? Occam’s Razor, Bayesian thinking, questionclass, decision, obvious Choosing the most useful story when the truth isn’t fully visible yet Big-picture framing When several explanations seem to fit, your brain begs for a clean story. But the real problem isn’t “What’s true?”—it’s “What should I actually do next ?” In work, relationships, and strategy, acting on the wrong explanation can quietly waste months. A better approach is to treat explanations as hypotheses instead of truths, using simple tools like Occam’s Razor , light Bayesian thinking (updating your beliefs as new evidence shows up), and small reversible experiments. That way, multiple explanations stop being a dead end and become a structured way to learn faster. Why Multiple Explanations Feel Paralyzing When something goes wrong, your mind instantly generates stories: “The market changed.” “The strategy was flawed....